[Mike]

There is some good data showing that people's interest in electric bike transportation correlates directly with gas prices. In other words, as gas prices go up, more people agree that electric bike transport is a great substitute for automobile transport. Do you think this means that when U.S. gas prices are as high as they are in Europe ($8/gal) that Americans will ride proportionally as many bikes as Europeans do (way more than Americans do now)? It's also interesting to see the heavy Google search volume from Australia and India on the charts. I wonder what that implies. Any ideas?

[kuzumoto]

This entails good weather in Australia and cheap tranportation in the case of India, I assume.

[Mike]

The weather is a good point. What do you think about a solar charger accessory for places with sunny weather? Do you think a small, slow charging option or a large canopy that covers the whole bike and gives the rider shade would be good ideas?

[WhiteTiger]

Personally I don't think we'll ever see anything approaching european levels of ebike use unless someone markets an affordable monocoque design. I'm afraid the typical american is just so accustomed to comfort that significant numbers wont happen until/unless all weather can be locked out as it is with an automobile.


Tiger

[jjtaco463rd]

I am late to this specific discussion however I will add my opinion here.
The earths natural obtainable oil supply will be depeleted by the predicted year 2057 and this prediction is updated from between the years 2062 to 2094
Here is Wikipedia's article on this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_depletion

One argue that other alternative fuels could be used such as biofuels (alcohol made from corn).
However modern agriculture mostly uses inorganic fertilizers on a large scale for accelerated crop growth.
Fritz Haber (Nobel Prize winner) recognized the Nitrogen crises and future possible mass starvation as a chemist.
The inorganic fertilizers are made from the Haber-Bosch process which uses Natural Gas for producer gas (hydrogen).
When the supply of natural gas dwindles just like crude oil these inorganic synthetically made fertilizers will become scarce hence vegetable foods will be much less productive so it's really a choice between having biofuels or food.
The food supply will be much lower and since it would be a drastic lowering in productivity, biofuels from this would not make sense with populations starving.Of course food crops can be grown organically and this will have to transpire in the future (people growing their own crops organically in their backyards etc to suppliment exhorbitant food prices in the bleak future).

Probably by the year 2036 gas prices will be so exhorbitant by a factor of 3 or 4 in terms of costs (rather than price) and correspondingly other goods will be much more expensive that commuting by fossil fuel motor vehicle will become impractical to most especially long distance commuting or frivolous travel.Inevitably people will have to reside close to where they work and transportation will be difficult.This is where people will have to travel by the most economical means possible and use motor vehicles much less or discard usage of their fossil fueled powered motor vehicles altogether.When the earths practical fossil fuels that can be obtained reasonably and used to fuel vehicles practically are gone people will need to get around by other means even if less luxurious ( and wasteful like highly inefficient heavy mass ICE vehicles).

Electric powered bicycles,bicycles and EPAMD's will be the most used personal form of transportation probably by 2036.
Electric trolleys (and trains) might likely make a big comeback too for mass transportation and fossil fuel powered mass transit buses disappear.
See these articles.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_American_Streetcar_Scandal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_trolley

Cheap Fossil Fuels have enabled our society to enjoy the good (economic) life but at the detriment of global climate change and are going to run out soon well except for coal.Of course we could replace gas powered cars with coal fired steam cars and trucks but that seems unlikely.Coal powered trains might make a comeback though.
The standard of living within the next 50 years will be much lower than today.However considering my age I might not even see those predicted bleaker economic times.On the bright side of things riding a bicycle or electric bike will be far safer with far fewer motor vehicles on roads and gridlocked motor vehicle traffic will become very rare.When the economy slumps much further and prices will be much higher electric cars will become much more expensive than today.They will exist of course but in far fewer numbers only the very wealthy will be able to afford them.Even bicycles will likely become much more expensive by 2036 because of the higher costs of goods.
Anyway just my thoughts about the future.